Every point of a match plotted by how much of the win probability it could swing, with a draggable high-leverage line and per-player conversion above it.
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R. Almeida v K. Sandberg · Clay 500 · QF · 6-7(6) 6-2 7-5
226 points · biggest 35.9 pts at 2:36 · 32 at or above 15 pts
R. AlmeidaK. Sandbergunder the linebiggest points
High-leverage points · at or above 15 pts
32 of 226 points · 14% of the match
R. Almeidawon 16 of 3250%
13 of 17 serving · 3 of 15 returning
K. Sandbergwon 16 of 3250%
12 of 15 serving · 4 of 17 returning
The 3 biggest points of the match
1K 30-40Set 3 · 5-6 · 2:3635.9 pts
R. Almeida won it on K. Sandberg's serve · R. Almeida 77% → 100%
2R 30-40Set 3 · 3-3 · 2:1730.0 pts
R. Almeida won it on serve · R. Almeida 37% → 48%
3K 5-5Set 1 · 6-6 · 1:0225.0 pts
K. Sandberg won it on serve · R. Almeida 50% → 37%
Leverage is what one point is worth: the gap between R. Almeida's chance of winning the match if the server takes it and if the returner does. The line at 15 pts is yours to move — drag it, or focus the plot and use the arrow keys; every count on this card follows it. The 3 biggest points are ringed and labelled in place and named in the list above — a score there reads server first, behind the initial of the player who served it. 216 of 226 points came priced by the supplied win-probability model; 10 fell back to the standard table keyed by game and set score. That table is built from one assumption — 62% of points won on serve, which works out at a 78% hold — and reads the point's importance in its game, the game's in the set and the set's in a best-of-three match.
Point leverage: R. Almeida against K. Sandberg, Clay 500 · QF · 6-7(6) 6-2 7-5. 226 points plotted by leverage — the win-probability swing between the server winning the point and the returner winning it — against match time, 0:00 to 2:36. The biggest point of the match was worth 35.9 points of win probability: 35.9 points at 2:36, Set 3, 5-6 games, 30-40 on K. Sandberg's serve, won by R. Almeida. High leverage at the 15-point line: 32 of 226 points (14%). R. Almeida won 16 of them (50%), K. Sandberg won 16 (50%). Exact values follow in the data table. 24 of 32 points at or above the line, biggest first.
Leverage
Clock
Set
Games, server first
Score, server first
Server
Winner
Priced by
35.9 points
2:36
Set 3
5-6
30-40
K. Sandberg
R. Almeida
supplied model
30.0 points
2:17
Set 3
3-3
30-40
R. Almeida
R. Almeida
supplied model
25.0 points
1:02
Set 1
6-6
5-5
K. Sandberg
K. Sandberg
supplied model
25.0 points
1:02
Set 1
6-6
5-6
R. Almeida
R. Almeida
supplied model
25.0 points
1:03
Set 1
6-6
6-6
R. Almeida
K. Sandberg
supplied model
25.0 points
1:03
Set 1
6-6
7-6
K. Sandberg
K. Sandberg
supplied model
23.0 points
2:04
Set 3
1-2
40-A
K. Sandberg
K. Sandberg
supplied model
23.0 points
2:05
Set 3
1-2
40-A
K. Sandberg
K. Sandberg
supplied model
22.4 points
2:24
Set 3
4-4
15-30
R. Almeida
R. Almeida
supplied model
22.4 points
2:31
Set 3
5-5
15-30
R. Almeida
R. Almeida
supplied model
22.4 points
2:35
Set 3
5-6
15-30
K. Sandberg
K. Sandberg
supplied model
22.3 points
2:24
Set 3
4-4
30-30
R. Almeida
R. Almeida
supplied model
22.3 points
2:31
Set 3
5-5
30-30
R. Almeida
R. Almeida
supplied model
22.3 points
2:36
Set 3
5-6
30-30
K. Sandberg
R. Almeida
supplied model
20.9 points
1:49
Set 3
0-0
40-A
R. Almeida
R. Almeida
supplied model
19.2 points
2:23
Set 3
4-4
0-30
R. Almeida
R. Almeida
supplied model
19.2 points
2:35
Set 3
5-6
0-30
K. Sandberg
K. Sandberg
supplied model
18.8 points
1:01
Set 1
6-6
4-5
K. Sandberg
K. Sandberg
supplied model
18.7 points
1:01
Set 1
6-6
4-4
R. Almeida
R. Almeida
supplied model
18.6 points
2:16
Set 3
3-3
15-40
R. Almeida
R. Almeida
supplied model
18.5 points
2:15
Set 3
3-3
15-30
R. Almeida
K. Sandberg
supplied model
18.4 points
2:17
Set 3
3-3
40-40
R. Almeida
R. Almeida
supplied model
18.2 points
0:47
Set 1
4-5
30-40
K. Sandberg
K. Sandberg
supplied model
17.1 points
2:22
Set 3
4-4
0-15
R. Almeida
K. Sandberg
supplied model
empty
Point leverage
R. Almeida v K. Sandberg · Clay 500 · QF · 6-7(6) 6-2 7-5
Every point of the match by how much of the win probability it could swing
No points to weigh yet
Leverage needs points: each one arrives with the clock, the score it was played at and who won it. A win-probability model prices them if one is supplied; otherwise the standard table keyed by game and set score does.
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Point leverage
R. Almeida v K. Sandberg · Clay 500 · QF · 6-7(6) 6-2 7-5
Every point of the match by how much of the win probability it could swing
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Point leverage
R. Almeida v K. Sandberg · Clay 500 · QF · 6-7(6) 6-2 7-5
Every point of the match by how much of the win probability it could swing
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