A four-state seeded route through a draw — one round per rail station with the projected opponent's rating and head-to-head, faint branches for whoever could arrive instead, Elo win chances compounded into a survival bar, and a tab panel for each round's whole field.
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A. Rahimi [4] · 1,912 · Rotterdam · indoor hard · 32 draw
4.6%
Route survival
clears all 5 rounds · R32 → F
37%
Toughest round
SF · field averages 2,009 by arrival odds
8–14
Route head-to-head
across 4 of the 5 projected opponents · 1 never met
QF · 3 can arrive
expected opponent 1,854 · you take it 58% · 31% still alive
L. Marchetti[5]projected44%1,884 · h2h 3–4 · 54% if you meet
D. Oyelaran34%1,851 · h2h 1–1 · 59% if you meet
K. Sørensen22%1,802 · first meeting · 65% if you meet
Exactly one of these 3 arrives, so the arrival odds add to 100%.
Every route starts at 100%: 77% get past R32, and 4.6% clear all 5 rounds. SF is the wall — 37% against a field averaging 2,009 by arrival odds. Win chances come from the ratings alone — on the Elo scale a 100-point gap is 64% — and survival is their running product, so a bar can only shrink as the route deepens. The faint branches are the opponents who could arrive instead: pick a round to read its whole field.
Draw path for A. Rahimi [4], rated 1,912, at Rotterdam · indoor hard · 32 draw: 5 rounds from R32 to F. Win chances come from the ratings alone, on the Elo scale, and survival is their running product. R32, round 1 of 5. Likeliest arrival Q. Delacroix, unseeded, rated 1,684, arriving 45% of the time, first meeting, 79% to beat. 3 opponents can arrive; the field averages 1,697 by arrival odds. 77% to win the round, 77% of routes still alive after it. R16, round 2 of 5. Likeliest arrival M. Ekdal, unseeded, rated 1,798, arriving 53% of the time, h2h 2–3, 66% to beat. 3 opponents can arrive; the field averages 1,772 by arrival odds. 69% to win the round, 53% of routes still alive after it. QF, round 3 of 5. Likeliest arrival L. Marchetti, seed 5, rated 1,884, arriving 44% of the time, h2h 3–4, 54% to beat. 3 opponents can arrive; the field averages 1,854 by arrival odds. 58% to win the round, 31% of routes still alive after it. SF, round 4 of 5. Likeliest arrival V. Castellanos, seed 2, rated 2,088, arriving 66% of the time, h2h 1–4, 27% to beat. 3 opponents can arrive; the field averages 2,009 by arrival odds. 37% to win the round, 12% of routes still alive after it. F, round 5 of 5. Likeliest arrival F. Duval, seed 1, rated 2,118, arriving 40% of the time, h2h 2–3, 23% to beat. 4 opponents can arrive; the field averages 1,994 by arrival odds. 39% to win the round, 4.6% of routes still alive after it. Every route starts at 100%: 77% get past R32, and 4.6% clear all 5 rounds. SF is the wall — 37% against a field averaging 2,009 by arrival odds. Against the projected opponents the seed is 8–14, across 4 of the 5 projected opponents · 1 never met. Exact values follow in the data table.
Every opponent who could arrive in each of the 5 rounds, with the arrival odds that add to 100% inside a round, and the seed's chance against each of them.
Round
Opponent
Seed
Rating
Head-to-head
Arrives
Seed wins
R32
Q. Delacroix
unseeded
1,684
never played
45%
79%
R32
T. Novak
unseeded
1,741
seed won 1, lost 2
34%
73%
R32
R. Ibarra
unseeded
1,652
seed won 2, lost 1
21%
82%
R16
M. Ekdal
unseeded
1,798
seed won 2, lost 3
53%
66%
R16
S. Achterberg
unseeded
1,726
seed won 1, lost 0
29%
74%
R16
J. Faraday
unseeded
1,769
seed won 0, lost 1
18%
69%
QF
L. Marchetti
5
1,884
seed won 3, lost 4
44%
54%
QF
D. Oyelaran
unseeded
1,851
seed won 1, lost 1
34%
59%
QF
K. Sørensen
unseeded
1,802
never played
22%
65%
SF
V. Castellanos
2
2,088
seed won 1, lost 4
66%
27%
SF
N. Brandt
7
1,869
seed won 2, lost 2
21%
56%
SF
H. Ogawa
unseeded
1,833
never played
13%
61%
F
F. Duval
1
2,118
seed won 2, lost 3
40%
23%
F
B. Almeida
3
1,948
seed won 3, lost 1
25%
45%
F
P. Nakamura
6
1,893
never played
20%
53%
F
E. Kowal
unseeded
1,877
seed won 1, lost 0
15%
55%
empty
Route through the draw
A. Rahimi [4] · 1,912 · Rotterdam · indoor hard · 32 draw
No route to draw
A draw path needs each round's field: who could arrive, how likely each of them is, and what they are rated. Odds and ratings are what turn a bracket into a difficulty.
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Route through the draw
A. Rahimi [4] · 1,912 · Rotterdam · indoor hard · 32 draw
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Route through the draw
A. Rahimi [4] · 1,912 · Rotterdam · indoor hard · 32 draw
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