A four-state baseball win probability replay — a stepped line over the half-inning axis with leverage shading behind it, key plays called out by the swing they were worth, driven by a real play / pause / step / scrub transport.
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status="ready", uncontrolled, opened at the last out with defaultValue — 59 plays of Cedar Falls Foxes 3 at Bayside Barons 5. Press play to replay the game from the first pitch, step with the arrow buttons, scrub the range, or press a key-play chip to jump the playhead. The shading behind the line is leverage: the ninth is nearly solid.
Win probability · game replay
Sat 11 Apr · 23:05 UTC · Game 12
Cedar Falls Foxes30.0%
Bayside Barons5100.0%
Bot 9th
2 out · LI 4.92 high
Bot 9th C. Ruiz — walk-off three-run home run to right-center (+.765)
59/59
low leverage (LI under 0.85)
medium leverage (LI 0.85 up to 2.00)
high leverage (LI 2.00 and up)
key play (.100 or more)
Biggest swing:+.765 in the bot 9th — C. Ruiz, walk-off three-run home run to right-center. 10 plays were decided in high leverage.
The line only moves when a play does: it holds flat through a plate appearance and steps at its result. Each inning owns two slots — the visitors bat in the first, the home side in the second — so the axis stays innings however many plays a half runs to.
Bot 9th, 2 out, play 59 of 59. C. Ruiz walk-off three-run home run to right-center. Cedar Falls Foxes 3, Bayside Barons 5. Bayside Barons win probability 100.0%, +.765 on the play.
Every play in inning order, with the win probability it left behind, the swing it was worth, the leverage it was played in and the running score. The replay is paused after play 59 of 59.
Half-inning
Outs
Batter
Play
Win probability
Swing
Leverage
Score
Top 1st
1 out
A. Okafor
lines out to second base
53.0%
-.010
0.57 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 1st
2 out
M. Sandoval
flies out to center field
54.8%
+.018
0.51 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 1st
3 out, side retired
R. Villanueva
flies out to center field
54.5%
-.003
0.86 (medium)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 1st
1 out
N. Whitlock
grounds out to shortstop
55.8%
+.013
0.59 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 1st
2 out
M. Ferreira
flies out to center field
55.6%
-.002
0.64 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 1st
3 out, side retired
N. Whitlock
grounds out to shortstop
55.2%
-.004
0.88 (medium)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 2nd
1 out
R. Villanueva
grounds out to first base
55.5%
+.003
0.49 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 2nd
2 out
M. Sandoval
grounds out to shortstop
56.0%
+.005
0.47 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 2nd
3 out, side retired
M. Sandoval
strikes out swinging
56.6%
+.006
0.78 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 2nd
1 out
C. Ruiz
pops out to third base
58.1%
+.015
0.70 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 2nd
2 out
M. Ferreira
lines out to second base
57.2%
-.009
0.60 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 2nd
3 out, side retired
P. Grady
lines out to second base
56.4%
-.008
0.93 (medium)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 3rd
1 out
R. Villanueva
grounds out to first base
55.7%
-.007
1.11 (medium)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 3rd
2 out
T. Mercado
grounds out to first base
56.0%
+.003
1.16 (medium)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 3rd
2 out
T. Mercado
doubles to left-center, Okafor scores
45.5%
-.105
1.68 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 3rd
3 out, side retired
J. Kirby
grounds out to first base
46.8%
+.013
1.15 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 3rd
1 out
P. Grady
pops out to third base
46.6%
-.002
0.79 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 3rd
2 out
C. Ruiz
grounds out to shortstop
47.8%
+.012
0.80 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 3rd
3 out, side retired
L. Bassett
flies out to right field
47.0%
-.008
1.05 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 4th
1 out
A. Okafor
flies out to center field
45.3%
-.017
0.71 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 4th
2 out
T. Mercado
grounds out to first base
45.5%
+.002
0.51 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 4th
3 out, side retired
D. Halstead
pops out to first base
44.8%
-.007
0.95 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 4th
1 out
P. Grady
lines out to second base
46.2%
+.014
0.86 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 4th
1 out
C. Ruiz
singles to right field
50.5%
+.043
1.35 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 4th
3 out, side retired
E. Tanaka
grounds into a double play, Ruiz forced at second
43.2%
-.073
2.15 (high)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 5th
1 out
R. Villanueva
grounds out to shortstop
44.1%
+.009
0.54 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 5th
2 out
R. Villanueva
flies out to center field
44.0%
-.001
0.54 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 5th
3 out, side retired
A. Okafor
strikes out looking
44.6%
+.006
0.88 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 5th
1 out
P. Grady
strikes out swinging
45.0%
+.004
0.60 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 5th
2 out
L. Bassett
grounds out to shortstop
45.2%
+.002
0.77 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 5th
3 out, side retired
M. Ferreira
flies out to center field
44.4%
-.008
1.02 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 6th
1 out
J. Kirby
grounds out to first base
44.0%
-.004
1.46 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 6th
2 out
J. Kirby
sacrifice fly to right field, Okafor scores
33.5%
-.105
2.42 (high)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Top 6th
3 out, side retired
M. Sandoval
grounds out to second base
34.5%
+.010
1.10 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 6th
1 out
P. Grady
pops out to third base
33.5%
-.010
0.81 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 6th
2 out
N. Whitlock
grounds out to first base
35.2%
+.017
0.87 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 6th
3 out, side retired
N. Whitlock
strikes out swinging
34.0%
-.012
1.20 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Top 7th
1 out
A. Okafor
grounds out to shortstop
32.1%
-.019
0.63 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Top 7th
2 out
J. Kirby
pops out to third base
33.0%
+.009
0.50 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Top 7th
3 out, side retired
D. Halstead
flies out to left field
33.6%
+.006
0.92 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 7th
1 out
C. Ruiz
flies out to center field
33.0%
-.006
1.07 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 7th
1 out
P. Grady
walks on four pitches
39.2%
+.062
1.55 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 7th
1 out
E. Tanaka
two-run home run to right field, game tied
61.8%
+.226
2.85 (high)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Bot 7th
3 out, side retired
L. Bassett
grounds into a double play
60.5%
-.013
1.05 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 8th
1 out
A. Okafor
grounds out to first base
60.7%
+.002
0.73 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 8th
2 out
T. Mercado
grounds out to first base
61.2%
+.005
0.74 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 8th
3 out, side retired
R. Villanueva
flies out to center field
62.0%
+.008
1.28 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Bot 8th
1 out
C. Ruiz
lines out to second base
61.3%
-.007
0.69 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Bot 8th
2 out
M. Ferreira
strikes out swinging
63.2%
+.019
0.68 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Bot 8th
3 out, side retired
C. Ruiz
strikes out looking
62.5%
-.007
1.15 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 9th
1 out
J. Kirby
grounds out to first base
61.8%
-.007
1.44 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 9th
1 out
T. Mercado
singles to center field
56.0%
-.058
2.05 (high)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 9th
1 out
J. Kirby
doubles down the line, Mercado scores
26.8%
-.292
3.15 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Top 9th
3 out, side retired
M. Sandoval
strikes out swinging, Kirby caught stealing third
28.2%
+.014
1.45 (medium)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Bot 9th
1 out
E. Tanaka
strikes out swinging
22.5%
-.057
2.55 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Bot 9th
1 out
P. Grady
walks, tying run aboard
31.2%
+.087
3.05 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Bot 9th
2 out
L. Bassett
flies out to left field
14.8%
-.164
3.40 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Bot 9th
2 out
M. Ferreira
singles to right field, Grady to third
23.5%
+.087
4.35 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Bot 9th
2 out
C. Ruiz
walk-off three-run home run to right-center
100.0%
+.765
4.92 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 5
Paused mid-game, and controlled: value + onValueChange live in this demo, so the playhead sits on play 43 of 59 on first paint — the card screenshots as real playback state instead of at first pitch. Press play and this caption counts along.
Win probability · game replay
Sat 11 Apr · 23:05 UTC · Game 12
Cedar Falls Foxes238.2%
Bayside Barons261.8%
Bot 7th
1 out · LI 2.85 high
Bot 7th E. Tanaka — two-run home run to right field, game tied (+.226)
43/59
low leverage (LI under 0.85)
medium leverage (LI 0.85 up to 2.00)
high leverage (LI 2.00 and up)
key play (.100 or more)
Biggest swing so far:+.226 in the bot 7th — E. Tanaka, two-run home run to right field, game tied. 3 plays were decided in high leverage.
The line only moves when a play does: it holds flat through a plate appearance and steps at its result. Each inning owns two slots — the visitors bat in the first, the home side in the second — so the axis stays innings however many plays a half runs to.
Bot 7th, 1 out, play 43 of 59. E. Tanaka two-run home run to right field, game tied. Cedar Falls Foxes 2, Bayside Barons 2. Bayside Barons win probability 61.8%, +.226 on the play.
Every play in inning order, with the win probability it left behind, the swing it was worth, the leverage it was played in and the running score. The replay is paused after play 43 of 59.
Half-inning
Outs
Batter
Play
Win probability
Swing
Leverage
Score
Top 1st
1 out
A. Okafor
lines out to second base
53.0%
-.010
0.57 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 1st
2 out
M. Sandoval
flies out to center field
54.8%
+.018
0.51 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 1st
3 out, side retired
R. Villanueva
flies out to center field
54.5%
-.003
0.86 (medium)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 1st
1 out
N. Whitlock
grounds out to shortstop
55.8%
+.013
0.59 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 1st
2 out
M. Ferreira
flies out to center field
55.6%
-.002
0.64 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 1st
3 out, side retired
N. Whitlock
grounds out to shortstop
55.2%
-.004
0.88 (medium)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 2nd
1 out
R. Villanueva
grounds out to first base
55.5%
+.003
0.49 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 2nd
2 out
M. Sandoval
grounds out to shortstop
56.0%
+.005
0.47 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 2nd
3 out, side retired
M. Sandoval
strikes out swinging
56.6%
+.006
0.78 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 2nd
1 out
C. Ruiz
pops out to third base
58.1%
+.015
0.70 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 2nd
2 out
M. Ferreira
lines out to second base
57.2%
-.009
0.60 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 2nd
3 out, side retired
P. Grady
lines out to second base
56.4%
-.008
0.93 (medium)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 3rd
1 out
R. Villanueva
grounds out to first base
55.7%
-.007
1.11 (medium)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 3rd
2 out
T. Mercado
grounds out to first base
56.0%
+.003
1.16 (medium)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 3rd
2 out
T. Mercado
doubles to left-center, Okafor scores
45.5%
-.105
1.68 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 3rd
3 out, side retired
J. Kirby
grounds out to first base
46.8%
+.013
1.15 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 3rd
1 out
P. Grady
pops out to third base
46.6%
-.002
0.79 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 3rd
2 out
C. Ruiz
grounds out to shortstop
47.8%
+.012
0.80 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 3rd
3 out, side retired
L. Bassett
flies out to right field
47.0%
-.008
1.05 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 4th
1 out
A. Okafor
flies out to center field
45.3%
-.017
0.71 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 4th
2 out
T. Mercado
grounds out to first base
45.5%
+.002
0.51 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 4th
3 out, side retired
D. Halstead
pops out to first base
44.8%
-.007
0.95 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 4th
1 out
P. Grady
lines out to second base
46.2%
+.014
0.86 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 4th
1 out
C. Ruiz
singles to right field
50.5%
+.043
1.35 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 4th
3 out, side retired
E. Tanaka
grounds into a double play, Ruiz forced at second
43.2%
-.073
2.15 (high)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 5th
1 out
R. Villanueva
grounds out to shortstop
44.1%
+.009
0.54 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 5th
2 out
R. Villanueva
flies out to center field
44.0%
-.001
0.54 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 5th
3 out, side retired
A. Okafor
strikes out looking
44.6%
+.006
0.88 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 5th
1 out
P. Grady
strikes out swinging
45.0%
+.004
0.60 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 5th
2 out
L. Bassett
grounds out to shortstop
45.2%
+.002
0.77 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 5th
3 out, side retired
M. Ferreira
flies out to center field
44.4%
-.008
1.02 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 6th
1 out
J. Kirby
grounds out to first base
44.0%
-.004
1.46 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 6th
2 out
J. Kirby
sacrifice fly to right field, Okafor scores
33.5%
-.105
2.42 (high)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Top 6th
3 out, side retired
M. Sandoval
grounds out to second base
34.5%
+.010
1.10 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 6th
1 out
P. Grady
pops out to third base
33.5%
-.010
0.81 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 6th
2 out
N. Whitlock
grounds out to first base
35.2%
+.017
0.87 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 6th
3 out, side retired
N. Whitlock
strikes out swinging
34.0%
-.012
1.20 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Top 7th
1 out
A. Okafor
grounds out to shortstop
32.1%
-.019
0.63 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Top 7th
2 out
J. Kirby
pops out to third base
33.0%
+.009
0.50 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Top 7th
3 out, side retired
D. Halstead
flies out to left field
33.6%
+.006
0.92 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 7th
1 out
C. Ruiz
flies out to center field
33.0%
-.006
1.07 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 7th
1 out
P. Grady
walks on four pitches
39.2%
+.062
1.55 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 7th
1 out
E. Tanaka
two-run home run to right field, game tied
61.8%
+.226
2.85 (high)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Bot 7th
3 out, side retired
L. Bassett
grounds into a double play
60.5%
-.013
1.05 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 8th
1 out
A. Okafor
grounds out to first base
60.7%
+.002
0.73 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 8th
2 out
T. Mercado
grounds out to first base
61.2%
+.005
0.74 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 8th
3 out, side retired
R. Villanueva
flies out to center field
62.0%
+.008
1.28 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Bot 8th
1 out
C. Ruiz
lines out to second base
61.3%
-.007
0.69 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Bot 8th
2 out
M. Ferreira
strikes out swinging
63.2%
+.019
0.68 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Bot 8th
3 out, side retired
C. Ruiz
strikes out looking
62.5%
-.007
1.15 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 9th
1 out
J. Kirby
grounds out to first base
61.8%
-.007
1.44 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 9th
1 out
T. Mercado
singles to center field
56.0%
-.058
2.05 (high)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 9th
1 out
J. Kirby
doubles down the line, Mercado scores
26.8%
-.292
3.15 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Top 9th
3 out, side retired
M. Sandoval
strikes out swinging, Kirby caught stealing third
28.2%
+.014
1.45 (medium)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Bot 9th
1 out
E. Tanaka
strikes out swinging
22.5%
-.057
2.55 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Bot 9th
1 out
P. Grady
walks, tying run aboard
31.2%
+.087
3.05 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Bot 9th
2 out
L. Bassett
flies out to left field
14.8%
-.164
3.40 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Bot 9th
2 out
M. Ferreira
singles to right field, Grady to third
23.5%
+.087
4.35 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Bot 9th
2 out
C. Ruiz
walk-off three-run home run to right-center
100.0%
+.765
4.92 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 5
variant="swing", opened at the last out — the same replay drawn as one column per play: how much win probability it added or cost. Columns above the rule are home gains, below are visitor gains, both halves labelled so the colour is never the only clue, and every key play keeps its diamond.
Win probability · game replay
Sat 11 Apr · 23:05 UTC · Game 12
Cedar Falls Foxes30.0%
Bayside Barons5100.0%
Bot 9th
2 out · LI 4.92 high
Bot 9th C. Ruiz — walk-off three-run home run to right-center (+.765)
59/59
low leverage (LI under 0.85)
medium leverage (LI 0.85 up to 2.00)
high leverage (LI 2.00 and up)
key play (.100 or more)
Biggest swing:+.765 in the bot 9th — C. Ruiz, walk-off three-run home run to right-center. 10 plays were decided in high leverage.
The line only moves when a play does: it holds flat through a plate appearance and steps at its result. Each inning owns two slots — the visitors bat in the first, the home side in the second — so the axis stays innings however many plays a half runs to.
Bot 9th, 2 out, play 59 of 59. C. Ruiz walk-off three-run home run to right-center. Cedar Falls Foxes 3, Bayside Barons 5. Bayside Barons win probability 100.0%, +.765 on the play.
Every play in inning order, with the win probability it left behind, the swing it was worth, the leverage it was played in and the running score. The replay is paused after play 59 of 59.
Half-inning
Outs
Batter
Play
Win probability
Swing
Leverage
Score
Top 1st
1 out
A. Okafor
lines out to second base
53.0%
-.010
0.57 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 1st
2 out
M. Sandoval
flies out to center field
54.8%
+.018
0.51 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 1st
3 out, side retired
R. Villanueva
flies out to center field
54.5%
-.003
0.86 (medium)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 1st
1 out
N. Whitlock
grounds out to shortstop
55.8%
+.013
0.59 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 1st
2 out
M. Ferreira
flies out to center field
55.6%
-.002
0.64 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 1st
3 out, side retired
N. Whitlock
grounds out to shortstop
55.2%
-.004
0.88 (medium)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 2nd
1 out
R. Villanueva
grounds out to first base
55.5%
+.003
0.49 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 2nd
2 out
M. Sandoval
grounds out to shortstop
56.0%
+.005
0.47 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 2nd
3 out, side retired
M. Sandoval
strikes out swinging
56.6%
+.006
0.78 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 2nd
1 out
C. Ruiz
pops out to third base
58.1%
+.015
0.70 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 2nd
2 out
M. Ferreira
lines out to second base
57.2%
-.009
0.60 (low)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Bot 2nd
3 out, side retired
P. Grady
lines out to second base
56.4%
-.008
0.93 (medium)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 3rd
1 out
R. Villanueva
grounds out to first base
55.7%
-.007
1.11 (medium)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 3rd
2 out
T. Mercado
grounds out to first base
56.0%
+.003
1.16 (medium)
CDR 0 – BAY 0
Top 3rd
2 out
T. Mercado
doubles to left-center, Okafor scores
45.5%
-.105
1.68 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 3rd
3 out, side retired
J. Kirby
grounds out to first base
46.8%
+.013
1.15 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 3rd
1 out
P. Grady
pops out to third base
46.6%
-.002
0.79 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 3rd
2 out
C. Ruiz
grounds out to shortstop
47.8%
+.012
0.80 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 3rd
3 out, side retired
L. Bassett
flies out to right field
47.0%
-.008
1.05 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 4th
1 out
A. Okafor
flies out to center field
45.3%
-.017
0.71 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 4th
2 out
T. Mercado
grounds out to first base
45.5%
+.002
0.51 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 4th
3 out, side retired
D. Halstead
pops out to first base
44.8%
-.007
0.95 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 4th
1 out
P. Grady
lines out to second base
46.2%
+.014
0.86 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 4th
1 out
C. Ruiz
singles to right field
50.5%
+.043
1.35 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 4th
3 out, side retired
E. Tanaka
grounds into a double play, Ruiz forced at second
43.2%
-.073
2.15 (high)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 5th
1 out
R. Villanueva
grounds out to shortstop
44.1%
+.009
0.54 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 5th
2 out
R. Villanueva
flies out to center field
44.0%
-.001
0.54 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 5th
3 out, side retired
A. Okafor
strikes out looking
44.6%
+.006
0.88 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 5th
1 out
P. Grady
strikes out swinging
45.0%
+.004
0.60 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 5th
2 out
L. Bassett
grounds out to shortstop
45.2%
+.002
0.77 (low)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Bot 5th
3 out, side retired
M. Ferreira
flies out to center field
44.4%
-.008
1.02 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 6th
1 out
J. Kirby
grounds out to first base
44.0%
-.004
1.46 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
Top 6th
2 out
J. Kirby
sacrifice fly to right field, Okafor scores
33.5%
-.105
2.42 (high)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Top 6th
3 out, side retired
M. Sandoval
grounds out to second base
34.5%
+.010
1.10 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 6th
1 out
P. Grady
pops out to third base
33.5%
-.010
0.81 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 6th
2 out
N. Whitlock
grounds out to first base
35.2%
+.017
0.87 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 6th
3 out, side retired
N. Whitlock
strikes out swinging
34.0%
-.012
1.20 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Top 7th
1 out
A. Okafor
grounds out to shortstop
32.1%
-.019
0.63 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Top 7th
2 out
J. Kirby
pops out to third base
33.0%
+.009
0.50 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Top 7th
3 out, side retired
D. Halstead
flies out to left field
33.6%
+.006
0.92 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 7th
1 out
C. Ruiz
flies out to center field
33.0%
-.006
1.07 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 7th
1 out
P. Grady
walks on four pitches
39.2%
+.062
1.55 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 0
Bot 7th
1 out
E. Tanaka
two-run home run to right field, game tied
61.8%
+.226
2.85 (high)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Bot 7th
3 out, side retired
L. Bassett
grounds into a double play
60.5%
-.013
1.05 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 8th
1 out
A. Okafor
grounds out to first base
60.7%
+.002
0.73 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 8th
2 out
T. Mercado
grounds out to first base
61.2%
+.005
0.74 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 8th
3 out, side retired
R. Villanueva
flies out to center field
62.0%
+.008
1.28 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Bot 8th
1 out
C. Ruiz
lines out to second base
61.3%
-.007
0.69 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Bot 8th
2 out
M. Ferreira
strikes out swinging
63.2%
+.019
0.68 (low)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Bot 8th
3 out, side retired
C. Ruiz
strikes out looking
62.5%
-.007
1.15 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 9th
1 out
J. Kirby
grounds out to first base
61.8%
-.007
1.44 (medium)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 9th
1 out
T. Mercado
singles to center field
56.0%
-.058
2.05 (high)
CDR 2 – BAY 2
Top 9th
1 out
J. Kirby
doubles down the line, Mercado scores
26.8%
-.292
3.15 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Top 9th
3 out, side retired
M. Sandoval
strikes out swinging, Kirby caught stealing third
28.2%
+.014
1.45 (medium)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Bot 9th
1 out
E. Tanaka
strikes out swinging
22.5%
-.057
2.55 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Bot 9th
1 out
P. Grady
walks, tying run aboard
31.2%
+.087
3.05 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Bot 9th
2 out
L. Bassett
flies out to left field
14.8%
-.164
3.40 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Bot 9th
2 out
M. Ferreira
singles to right field, Grady to third
23.5%
+.087
4.35 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 2
Bot 9th
2 out
C. Ruiz
walk-off three-run home run to right-center
100.0%
+.765
4.92 (high)
CDR 3 – BAY 5
Degenerate feed — an inning of 0 (pulled up to the 1st), a win probability of 1.6 (clamped to 1.000, which is what a corrupt row looks like when it is not swallowed), a negative leverage index (treated as missing, so that span stays unshaded), 7 outs (clamped to 3), an unreadable inning and an unreadable probability (both dropped and counted), a play worth .000, a lost run total (carried forward), a name and a description that cannot fit, and a walk-off in the 11th that stretches the axis past regulation. The footnote says what moved and what was dropped; the geometry survives all of it.
Win probability · degenerate feed
Sat 11 Apr · 23:05 UTC · Game 12
Stonecross Quarry Kings10.0%
Bayside Barons2100.0%
Bot 11th
1 out · LI 12.00 high
Bot 11th M. Ferreira — walk-off single to left field (+.560)
6/6
low leverage (LI under 0.85)
medium leverage (LI 0.85 up to 2.00)
high leverage (LI 2.00 and up)
key play (.100 or more)
Biggest swing:+.560 in the bot 11th — M. Ferreira, walk-off single to left field. 1 play was decided in high leverage.
2 plays carry no usable inning or win probability — left out of the replay and out of every figure above. 5 plays sat outside the legal range (inning, probability, leverage, outs or runs) and were pulled back to the edge. 1 play has no leverage index, so its span is left unshaded.
The line only moves when a play does: it holds flat through a plate appearance and steps at its result. Each inning owns two slots — the visitors bat in the first, the home side in the second — so the axis stays innings however many plays a half runs to.
Bot 11th, 1 out, play 6 of 6. M. Ferreira walk-off single to left field. Stonecross Quarry Kings 1, Bayside Barons 2. Bayside Barons win probability 100.0%, +.560 on the play.
Every play in inning order, with the win probability it left behind, the swing it was worth, the leverage it was played in and the running score. The replay is paused after play 6 of 6.
Half-inning
Outs
Batter
Play
Win probability
Swing
Leverage
Score
Top 1st
1 out
Bartholomew Fitzwilliam-Castellanos
grounds out to shortstop on a checked swing that died halfway up the third base line
50.0%
.000
0.90 (medium)
STC 0 – BAY 0
Top 1st
2 out
—
line drive to left, run-scoring probability arrives out of range
100.0%
+.500
1.20 (medium)
STC 0 – BAY 0
Bot 1st
3 out, side retired
N. Whitlock
walks
52.0%
-.480
not given
STC 0 – BAY 0
Bot 2nd
1 out
E. Tanaka
grounds out to second base
52.0%
.000
0.80 (low)
STC 0 – BAY 0
Top 3rd
1 out
J. Kirby
doubles to the gap, one run scores
44.0%
-.080
1.90 (medium)
STC 1 – BAY 0
Bot 11th
1 out
M. Ferreira
walk-off single to left field
100.0%
+.560
12.00 (high)
STC 1 – BAY 2
One play, two frames — the shortest legal replay, left at the first pitch. Step forward once and the transport is already at the end: the forward button turns aria-disabled rather than vanishing under the finger, and play becomes replay.
Win probability · game replay
Sat 11 Apr · 23:05 UTC · Game 12
Cedar Falls Foxes046.0%
Bayside Barons054.0%
First pitch
Pre-game
First pitch — press play to walk the game play by play.
0/1
low leverage (LI under 0.85)
medium leverage (LI 0.85 up to 2.00)
high leverage (LI 2.00 and up)
key play (.100 or more)
The line only moves when a play does: it holds flat through a plate appearance and steps at its result. Each inning owns two slots — the visitors bat in the first, the home side in the second — so the axis stays innings however many plays a half runs to.
First pitch. Bayside Barons win probability 54.0%.
Every play in inning order, with the win probability it left behind, the swing it was worth, the leverage it was played in and the running score. The replay is paused after play 0 of 1.
Half-inning
Outs
Batter
Play
Win probability
Swing
Leverage
Score
Top 1st
none out
A. Okafor
leads off with a solo home run to right field
41.0%
-.130
0.87 (medium)
CDR 1 – BAY 0
status="empty" — the fixture exists but no play has been logged yet. A ready payload with zero usable plays lands here too, rather than drawing a flat coin-flip line.
Win probability · game replay
Sat 11 Apr · 23:05 UTC · Game 12
No plays to replay yet
The win probability line appears here once the first play is logged — press play to walk the game half-inning by half-inning.
status="loading" — the skeleton keeps the ready layout (line score, plot, transport) so the card does not jump when the feed lands.
Win probability · game replay
Sat 11 Apr · 23:05 UTC · Game 12
Loading win probability replay
status="error" + onRetry — the retry button only renders when onRetry is passed; here it swaps the card to the ready feed.
Zyeon UI