A four-state ACF/PACF stem plot that computes the correlations from the raw series — one stem per lag against a ±1.96/√n band, lags outside it emphasised by shape as well as colour, and a toggle between the two panels.
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status="ready" · a year of storefront orders. Nothing about lag 1 is interesting — it is lags 7, 14, 21 and 28, at 0.74, 0.75, 0.71 and 0.70, that carry the signal, with the troughs two days either side of each peak. 12 of 28 lags leave the ±0.10 band where about 1.4 would by chance, and the verdict names the weekly period rather than leaving it to be counted off the axis. Hover a stem, or tab into the plot and use the arrow keys; Enter picks one.
Daily orders · autocorrelation
364 days · lags 1–28, weekly period marked
Daily orders · autocorrelation: 28 lags estimated from 364 readings. Significance band: ±0.10 = ±1.96/√364. 12 ACF and 10 PACF of 28 lags outside the band — about 1.4 would be there by chance alone. Outside the band: 12 lags — 2, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14, 16, 19 and 4 more. Lags 7, 14, 21 are outside the band — multiples of the 7 it repeats on, so the structure here is seasonal rather than a short memory. 12 of 28 lags leave the band in all: read the rest against that cycle rather than one at a time.
ACF PACF inside the band ±0.10 = ±1.96/√364
Point at the plot, or tab into it and use the arrow keys.
12 ACF and 10 PACF of 28 lags outside the band — about 1.4 would be there by chance alone. Lag 0 is 1 by definition and is never plotted.
Lags 7, 14, 21 are outside the band — multiples of the 7 it repeats on, so the structure here is seasonal rather than a short memory. 12 of 28 lags leave the band in all: read the rest against that cycle rather than one at a time.
Daily orders · autocorrelation: 28 lags estimated from 364 readings. Significance band: ±0.10 = ±1.96/√364. 12 ACF and 10 PACF of 28 lags outside the band — about 1.4 would be there by chance alone. Outside the band: 12 lags — 2, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14, 16, 19 and 4 more. Lags 7, 14, 21 are outside the band — multiples of the 7 it repeats on, so the structure here is seasonal rather than a short memory. 12 of 28 lags leave the band in all: read the rest against that cycle rather than one at a time.
Lag
ACF
ACF band
PACF
PACF band
1
+0.06
±0.10 — inside
+0.06
±0.10 — inside
2
-0.40
±0.10 — outside
-0.41
±0.10 — outside
3
+0.06
±0.10 — inside
+0.14
±0.10 — outside
4
+0.03
±0.10 — inside
-0.20
±0.10 — outside
5
-0.42
±0.10 — outside
-0.40
±0.10 — outside
6
0.00
±0.10 — inside
+0.05
±0.10 — inside
7
+0.74
±0.10 — outside
+0.61
±0.10 — outside
8
0.00
±0.10 — inside
-0.23
±0.10 — outside
9
-0.39
±0.10 — outside
-0.04
±0.10 — inside
10
+0.08
±0.10 — inside
-0.03
±0.10 — inside
11
+0.08
±0.10 — inside
+0.09
±0.10 — inside
12
-0.39
±0.10 — outside
-0.08
±0.10 — inside
13
0.00
±0.10 — inside
+0.07
±0.10 — inside
14
+0.75
±0.10 — outside
+0.40
±0.10 — outside
15
+0.03
±0.10 — inside
-0.01
±0.10 — inside
16
-0.38
±0.10 — outside
-0.02
±0.10 — inside
17
+0.07
±0.10 — inside
-0.03
±0.10 — inside
18
+0.05
±0.10 — inside
-0.02
±0.10 — inside
19
-0.41
±0.10 — outside
0.00
±0.10 — inside
20
0.00
±0.10 — inside
+0.04
±0.10 — inside
21
+0.71
±0.10 — outside
+0.17
±0.10 — outside
22
+0.01
±0.10 — inside
-0.07
±0.10 — inside
23
-0.37
±0.10 — outside
+0.01
±0.10 — inside
24
+0.06
±0.10 — inside
-0.11
±0.10 — outside
25
+0.04
±0.10 — inside
-0.01
±0.10 — inside
26
-0.38
±0.10 — outside
+0.02
±0.10 — inside
27
-0.01
±0.10 — inside
-0.02
±0.10 — inside
28
+0.70
±0.10 — outside
+0.13
±0.10 — outside
onLagSelect → nothing picked
status="empty" · a valid payload carrying no readings at all — a different sentence from "loading" and from a fetch that failed.
Daily orders · autocorrelation
364 days · lags 1–28, weekly period marked
No series yet
Autocorrelations and their significance band appear here once the series arrives.
status="loading" · a decaying stem row around a baseline — the silhouette the plot itself has — so nothing jumps when the numbers land. aria-hidden, no timers, and no pulsing under reduced motion.
Daily orders · autocorrelation
364 days · lags 1–28, weekly period marked
Loading correlations
status="error" · the fetch failed. "Try again" only exists when onRetry is passed; clicking it flips this card to ready and moves focus to the card, so focus never lands on <body> when the button unmounts.
Daily orders · autocorrelation
364 days · lags 1–28, weekly period marked
Couldn't load this series
The data source didn't respond.
An AR(1) queue · 240 minutes of p95 latency where each minute keeps 0.7 of the last one. This is the pair of panels the toggle exists for: the ACF decays geometrically across 7 lags because every lag inherits lag 1's shadow, while the PACF — which regresses those intervening lags out — shows exactly one spike at 0.67 and nothing after it. One picture says 'sticky', two say 'AR(1)'.
p95 checkout latency · autocorrelation
240 minutes · AR(1) with φ ≈ 0.7
p95 checkout latency · autocorrelation: 24 lags estimated from 240 readings. Significance band: ±0.13 = ±1.96/√240. 7 ACF and 1 PACF of 24 lags outside the band — about 1.2 would be there by chance alone. Outside the band: 7 lags — 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. The ACF decays across 7 lags while the PACF cuts off after 1 lag — the classic autoregressive signature, so AR(1) is the order to try first.
ACF PACF inside the band ±0.13 = ±1.96/√240
Point at the plot, or tab into it and use the arrow keys.
7 ACF and 1 PACF of 24 lags outside the band — about 1.2 would be there by chance alone. Lag 0 is 1 by definition and is never plotted.
The ACF decays across 7 lags while the PACF cuts off after 1 lag — the classic autoregressive signature, so AR(1) is the order to try first.
p95 checkout latency · autocorrelation: 24 lags estimated from 240 readings. Significance band: ±0.13 = ±1.96/√240. 7 ACF and 1 PACF of 24 lags outside the band — about 1.2 would be there by chance alone. Outside the band: 7 lags — 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. The ACF decays across 7 lags while the PACF cuts off after 1 lag — the classic autoregressive signature, so AR(1) is the order to try first.
Lag
ACF
ACF band
PACF
PACF band
1
+0.67
±0.13 — outside
+0.67
±0.13 — outside
2
+0.47
±0.13 — outside
+0.04
±0.13 — inside
3
+0.34
±0.13 — outside
+0.02
±0.13 — inside
4
+0.28
±0.13 — outside
+0.07
±0.13 — inside
5
+0.22
±0.13 — outside
-0.02
±0.13 — inside
6
+0.18
±0.13 — outside
+0.02
±0.13 — inside
7
+0.14
±0.13 — outside
-0.01
±0.13 — inside
8
+0.10
±0.13 — inside
-0.01
±0.13 — inside
9
+0.03
±0.13 — inside
-0.08
±0.13 — inside
10
+0.05
±0.13 — inside
+0.09
±0.13 — inside
11
+0.03
±0.13 — inside
-0.05
±0.13 — inside
12
-0.02
±0.13 — inside
-0.06
±0.13 — inside
13
-0.01
±0.13 — inside
+0.06
±0.13 — inside
14
-0.03
±0.13 — inside
-0.07
±0.13 — inside
15
-0.05
±0.13 — inside
-0.01
±0.13 — inside
16
-0.06
±0.13 — inside
-0.01
±0.13 — inside
17
-0.05
±0.13 — inside
+0.01
±0.13 — inside
18
-0.06
±0.13 — inside
-0.05
±0.13 — inside
19
-0.03
±0.13 — inside
+0.08
±0.13 — inside
20
+0.03
±0.13 — inside
+0.07
±0.13 — inside
21
+0.08
±0.13 — inside
+0.03
±0.13 — inside
22
+0.06
±0.13 — inside
-0.01
±0.13 — inside
23
+0.07
±0.13 — inside
+0.01
±0.13 — inside
24
+0.07
±0.13 — inside
0.00
±0.13 — inside
The same series against a Bartlett band · band='bartlett' widens the band with the correlations already found, so it asks 'does lag k add anything beyond the lags before it' instead of 'is the whole series white noise'. Seven significant lags become five, and the two that drop out were never independent evidence — they were lag 1 being counted again.
p95 checkout latency · autocorrelation
240 minutes · AR(1) with φ ≈ 0.7
p95 checkout latency · autocorrelation: 24 lags estimated from 240 readings. Significance band: Bartlett band, widening with the correlations already found (±0.13 at lag 1). 5 ACF and 1 PACF of 24 lags outside the band — about 1.2 would be there by chance alone. Outside the band: 5 lags — 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. The ACF decays across 5 lags while the PACF cuts off after 1 lag — the classic autoregressive signature, so AR(1) is the order to try first.
ACF PACF inside the band Bartlett band, widening with the correlations already found (±0.13 at lag 1)
Point at the plot, or tab into it and use the arrow keys.
5 ACF and 1 PACF of 24 lags outside the band — about 1.2 would be there by chance alone. Lag 0 is 1 by definition and is never plotted.
The ACF decays across 5 lags while the PACF cuts off after 1 lag — the classic autoregressive signature, so AR(1) is the order to try first.
p95 checkout latency · autocorrelation: 24 lags estimated from 240 readings. Significance band: Bartlett band, widening with the correlations already found (±0.13 at lag 1). 5 ACF and 1 PACF of 24 lags outside the band — about 1.2 would be there by chance alone. Outside the band: 5 lags — 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. The ACF decays across 5 lags while the PACF cuts off after 1 lag — the classic autoregressive signature, so AR(1) is the order to try first.
Lag
ACF
ACF band
PACF
PACF band
1
+0.67
±0.13 — outside
+0.67
±0.13 — outside
2
+0.47
±0.17 — outside
+0.04
±0.13 — inside
3
+0.34
±0.19 — outside
+0.02
±0.13 — inside
4
+0.28
±0.20 — outside
+0.07
±0.13 — inside
5
+0.22
±0.21 — outside
-0.02
±0.13 — inside
6
+0.18
±0.21 — inside
+0.02
±0.13 — inside
7
+0.14
±0.21 — inside
-0.01
±0.13 — inside
8
+0.10
±0.22 — inside
-0.01
±0.13 — inside
9
+0.03
±0.22 — inside
-0.08
±0.13 — inside
10
+0.05
±0.22 — inside
+0.09
±0.13 — inside
11
+0.03
±0.22 — inside
-0.05
±0.13 — inside
12
-0.02
±0.22 — inside
-0.06
±0.13 — inside
13
-0.01
±0.22 — inside
+0.06
±0.13 — inside
14
-0.03
±0.22 — inside
-0.07
±0.13 — inside
15
-0.05
±0.22 — inside
-0.01
±0.13 — inside
16
-0.06
±0.22 — inside
-0.01
±0.13 — inside
17
-0.05
±0.22 — inside
+0.01
±0.13 — inside
18
-0.06
±0.22 — inside
-0.05
±0.13 — inside
19
-0.03
±0.22 — inside
+0.08
±0.13 — inside
20
+0.03
±0.22 — inside
+0.07
±0.13 — inside
21
+0.08
±0.22 — inside
+0.03
±0.13 — inside
22
+0.06
±0.22 — inside
-0.01
±0.13 — inside
23
+0.07
±0.22 — inside
+0.01
±0.13 — inside
24
+0.07
±0.22 — inside
0.00
±0.13 — inside
A random walk · inventory on hand is a level, not a rate, so every day starts from yesterday's number. All 24 lags clear the band and lag 10 is still at 0.81: the ACF decays far too slowly to be a short memory. The card says to difference it first, because every model fitted to this picture would be fitting the trend.
Units in stock · autocorrelation
220 days · a level, not a rate
Units in stock · autocorrelation: 24 lags estimated from 220 readings. Significance band: ±0.13 = ±1.96/√220. 24 ACF and 1 PACF of 24 lags outside the band — about 1.2 would be there by chance alone. Outside the band: 24 lags — 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 16 more. The first 24 lags are all positive and outside the band, and lag 10 is still at 0.81 — the ACF decays far too slowly to be a short memory, which is the signature of a trend or a random walk. Difference the series once and read this chart again before fitting anything.
ACF PACF inside the band ±0.13 = ±1.96/√220
Point at the plot, or tab into it and use the arrow keys.
24 ACF and 1 PACF of 24 lags outside the band — about 1.2 would be there by chance alone. Lag 0 is 1 by definition and is never plotted.
The first 24 lags are all positive and outside the band, and lag 10 is still at 0.81 — the ACF decays far too slowly to be a short memory, which is the signature of a trend or a random walk. Difference the series once and read this chart again before fitting anything.
Units in stock · autocorrelation: 24 lags estimated from 220 readings. Significance band: ±0.13 = ±1.96/√220. 24 ACF and 1 PACF of 24 lags outside the band — about 1.2 would be there by chance alone. Outside the band: 24 lags — 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 16 more. The first 24 lags are all positive and outside the band, and lag 10 is still at 0.81 — the ACF decays far too slowly to be a short memory, which is the signature of a trend or a random walk. Difference the series once and read this chart again before fitting anything.
Lag
ACF
ACF band
PACF
PACF band
1
+0.98
±0.13 — outside
+0.98
±0.13 — outside
2
+0.96
±0.13 — outside
-0.01
±0.13 — inside
3
+0.94
±0.13 — outside
-0.06
±0.13 — inside
4
+0.92
±0.13 — outside
-0.03
±0.13 — inside
5
+0.89
±0.13 — outside
+0.02
±0.13 — inside
6
+0.87
±0.13 — outside
+0.01
±0.13 — inside
7
+0.86
±0.13 — outside
+0.07
±0.13 — inside
8
+0.84
±0.13 — outside
+0.09
±0.13 — inside
9
+0.83
±0.13 — outside
-0.07
±0.13 — inside
10
+0.81
±0.13 — outside
-0.09
±0.13 — inside
11
+0.79
±0.13 — outside
-0.03
±0.13 — inside
12
+0.77
±0.13 — outside
-0.02
±0.13 — inside
13
+0.75
±0.13 — outside
-0.11
±0.13 — inside
14
+0.72
±0.13 — outside
+0.01
±0.13 — inside
15
+0.70
±0.13 — outside
-0.06
±0.13 — inside
16
+0.67
±0.13 — outside
+0.05
±0.13 — inside
17
+0.65
±0.13 — outside
-0.07
±0.13 — inside
18
+0.62
±0.13 — outside
+0.03
±0.13 — inside
19
+0.60
±0.13 — outside
+0.03
±0.13 — inside
20
+0.58
±0.13 — outside
-0.07
±0.13 — inside
21
+0.56
±0.13 — outside
+0.01
±0.13 — inside
22
+0.54
±0.13 — outside
+0.06
±0.13 — inside
23
+0.52
±0.13 — outside
-0.01
±0.13 — inside
24
+0.50
±0.13 — outside
-0.07
±0.13 — inside
Forecast residuals · 280 days after the model took the structure out. One lag of 24 pokes past the ±0.12 band where about 1.2 would by chance alone, and the verdict says so rather than reporting a significant lag 20: at 95% coverage, one stem in twenty leaves the band on a perfect sample. This is the case a card without an expected count turns into a false alarm.
Forecast residuals · autocorrelation
280 days · forecast residuals
Forecast residuals · autocorrelation: 24 lags estimated from 280 readings. Significance band: ±0.12 = ±1.96/√280. 1 ACF and 0 PACF of 24 lags outside the band — about 1.2 would be there by chance alone. Outside the band: 1 lag — 20. 1 of 24 lags leaves the ±0.12 band where about 1.2 would by chance alone — this still reads as white noise, and what is outside is the band doing its job rather than a finding.
ACF PACF inside the band ±0.12 = ±1.96/√280
Point at the plot, or tab into it and use the arrow keys.
1 ACF and 0 PACF of 24 lags outside the band — about 1.2 would be there by chance alone. Lag 0 is 1 by definition and is never plotted.
1 of 24 lags leaves the ±0.12 band where about 1.2 would by chance alone — this still reads as white noise, and what is outside is the band doing its job rather than a finding.
Forecast residuals · autocorrelation: 24 lags estimated from 280 readings. Significance band: ±0.12 = ±1.96/√280. 1 ACF and 0 PACF of 24 lags outside the band — about 1.2 would be there by chance alone. Outside the band: 1 lag — 20. 1 of 24 lags leaves the ±0.12 band where about 1.2 would by chance alone — this still reads as white noise, and what is outside is the band doing its job rather than a finding.
Lag
ACF
ACF band
PACF
PACF band
1
+0.09
±0.12 — inside
+0.09
±0.12 — inside
2
+0.09
±0.12 — inside
+0.08
±0.12 — inside
3
0.00
±0.12 — inside
-0.02
±0.12 — inside
4
+0.09
±0.12 — inside
+0.09
±0.12 — inside
5
-0.09
±0.12 — inside
-0.10
±0.12 — inside
6
+0.06
±0.12 — inside
+0.07
±0.12 — inside
7
+0.07
±0.12 — inside
+0.08
±0.12 — inside
8
+0.02
±0.12 — inside
-0.01
±0.12 — inside
9
+0.02
±0.12 — inside
+0.03
±0.12 — inside
10
+0.01
±0.12 — inside
-0.01
±0.12 — inside
11
-0.03
±0.12 — inside
-0.04
±0.12 — inside
12
-0.09
±0.12 — inside
-0.08
±0.12 — inside
13
-0.05
±0.12 — inside
-0.05
±0.12 — inside
14
-0.06
±0.12 — inside
-0.04
±0.12 — inside
15
+0.02
±0.12 — inside
+0.04
±0.12 — inside
16
-0.07
±0.12 — inside
-0.06
±0.12 — inside
17
-0.07
±0.12 — inside
-0.07
±0.12 — inside
18
-0.07
±0.12 — inside
-0.04
±0.12 — inside
19
-0.05
±0.12 — inside
-0.03
±0.12 — inside
20
-0.13
±0.12 — outside
-0.09
±0.12 — inside
21
-0.05
±0.12 — inside
-0.02
±0.12 — inside
22
-0.03
±0.12 — inside
-0.01
±0.12 — inside
23
-0.03
±0.12 — inside
-0.02
±0.12 — inside
24
-0.03
±0.12 — inside
-0.01
±0.12 — inside
The other contract path · a warehouse job computed the correlations and sent lags plus the sampleSize they came from, with no PACF — which is what most reporting APIs return. The PACF and Both options are disabled and the card says which field would enable them, instead of offering a view that would draw an empty panel. Monthly revenue, period 12: lags 12 and 24 are the finding.
Monthly revenue · ACF from the warehouse
monthly revenue · correlations computed upstream
Monthly revenue · ACF from the warehouse: 24 lags estimated from 132 readings, supplied precomputed. Significance band: ±0.17 = ±1.96/√132. 20 of 24 lags outside the band — about 1.2 would be there by chance alone. Outside the band: 20 lags — 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 and 12 more. Lags 12, 24 are outside the band — multiples of the 12 it repeats on, so the structure here is seasonal rather than a short memory. 20 of 24 lags leave the band in all: read the rest against that cycle rather than one at a time.
ACF inside the band ±0.17 = ±1.96/√132
Point at the plot, or tab into it and use the arrow keys.
20 of 24 lags outside the band — about 1.2 would be there by chance alone. Lag 0 is 1 by definition and is never plotted.
Lags 12, 24 are outside the band — multiples of the 12 it repeats on, so the structure here is seasonal rather than a short memory. 20 of 24 lags leave the band in all: read the rest against that cycle rather than one at a time.
No partial autocorrelations available, so the PACF views are off: supply a raw series, or a pacf on every lag.
Monthly revenue · ACF from the warehouse: 24 lags estimated from 132 readings, supplied precomputed. Significance band: ±0.17 = ±1.96/√132. 20 of 24 lags outside the band — about 1.2 would be there by chance alone. Outside the band: 20 lags — 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 and 12 more. Lags 12, 24 are outside the band — multiples of the 12 it repeats on, so the structure here is seasonal rather than a short memory. 20 of 24 lags leave the band in all: read the rest against that cycle rather than one at a time.
Lag
ACF
ACF band
PACF
PACF band
1
+0.64
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
2
+0.37
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
3
+0.01
±0.17 — inside
not supplied
no band
4
-0.40
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
5
-0.61
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
6
-0.73
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
7
-0.63
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
8
-0.34
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
9
-0.03
±0.17 — inside
not supplied
no band
10
+0.31
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
11
+0.58
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
12
+0.70
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
13
+0.58
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
14
+0.36
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
15
+0.04
±0.17 — inside
not supplied
no band
16
-0.31
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
17
-0.59
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
18
-0.62
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
19
-0.55
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
20
-0.31
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
21
-0.02
±0.17 — inside
not supplied
no band
22
+0.25
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
23
+0.51
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
24
+0.61
±0.17 — outside
not supplied
no band
A stubbed sensor · 60 readings, every one of them 21.5. Every correlation would be 0/0, and a row of stems flat on the baseline would read as a clean white-noise verdict — so the card refuses and names the reason instead of drawing that lie.
Cold-room temperature · autocorrelation
60 readings from a sensor that never moved
Nothing to correlate
every reading is the same value, so the series has no variation to correlate — every lag would be 0/0.
A feed nobody validated · 22 weeks arrive, 2 of them carrying NaN out of an empty column. Those are dropped and counted on the card, not interpolated — an invented reading would be paired with real ones at every lag. What is left is 20 readings, where the band is ±0.44: the card estimates the lags, prints the n/4 rule-of-thumb breach, and withholds any verdict, because at that width almost nothing real can clear it.
Weekly signups · autocorrelation
22 weeks reported, 2 of them empty
Weekly signups · autocorrelation: 10 lags estimated from 20 readings. Significance band: ±0.44 = ±1.96/√20. 0 ACF and 0 PACF of 10 lags outside the band — about 0.5 would be there by chance alone. Only 20 readings: the band is ±0.44, wide enough to swallow most real structure, so no shape is called from this sample.
ACF PACF inside the band ±0.44 = ±1.96/√20
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0 ACF and 0 PACF of 10 lags outside the band — about 0.5 would be there by chance alone. Lag 0 is 1 by definition and is never plotted.
Only 20 readings: the band is ±0.44, wide enough to swallow most real structure, so no shape is called from this sample.
Feed notes: 2 readings dropped — not a finite number, so no pair could include it · 10 lags on 20 readings is past the n/4 rule of thumb — the far lags average few pairs and shrink toward zero.
Weekly signups · autocorrelation: 10 lags estimated from 20 readings. Significance band: ±0.44 = ±1.96/√20. 0 ACF and 0 PACF of 10 lags outside the band — about 0.5 would be there by chance alone. Only 20 readings: the band is ±0.44, wide enough to swallow most real structure, so no shape is called from this sample.
Lag
ACF
ACF band
PACF
PACF band
1
-0.10
±0.44 — inside
-0.10
±0.44 — inside
2
-0.33
±0.44 — inside
-0.34
±0.44 — inside
3
-0.13
±0.44 — inside
-0.24
±0.44 — inside
4
-0.07
±0.44 — inside
-0.29
±0.44 — inside
5
+0.24
±0.44 — inside
+0.04
±0.44 — inside
6
-0.07
±0.44 — inside
-0.20
±0.44 — inside
7
-0.15
±0.44 — inside
-0.19
±0.44 — inside
8
+0.06
±0.44 — inside
-0.10
±0.44 — inside
9
+0.32
±0.44 — inside
+0.29
±0.44 — inside
10
-0.14
±0.44 — inside
-0.15
±0.44 — inside
level={0.99} view='acf' height={200} · a stricter band for evidence rather than triage, one panel because the PACF is not the question here, and a taller box so the weekly peaks have room. The band widens from ±0.10 to ±0.14 and all twelve lags stay outside it — the expected count drops from 1.4 to 0.3 and is printed beside the actual one, so the comparison moves with the level instead of going stale.
Daily orders · autocorrelation
364 days · lags 1–28, weekly period marked
Daily orders · autocorrelation: 28 lags estimated from 364 readings. Significance band: ±0.14 = ±2.576/√364. 12 of 28 lags outside the band — about 0.3 would be there by chance alone. Outside the band: 12 lags — 2, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14, 16, 19 and 4 more. Lags 7, 14, 21 are outside the band — multiples of the 7 it repeats on, so the structure here is seasonal rather than a short memory. 12 of 28 lags leave the band in all: read the rest against that cycle rather than one at a time.
ACF inside the band ±0.14 = ±2.576/√364
Point at the plot, or tab into it and use the arrow keys.
12 of 28 lags outside the band — about 0.3 would be there by chance alone. Lag 0 is 1 by definition and is never plotted.
Lags 7, 14, 21 are outside the band — multiples of the 7 it repeats on, so the structure here is seasonal rather than a short memory. 12 of 28 lags leave the band in all: read the rest against that cycle rather than one at a time.
Daily orders · autocorrelation: 28 lags estimated from 364 readings. Significance band: ±0.14 = ±2.576/√364. 12 of 28 lags outside the band — about 0.3 would be there by chance alone. Outside the band: 12 lags — 2, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14, 16, 19 and 4 more. Lags 7, 14, 21 are outside the band — multiples of the 7 it repeats on, so the structure here is seasonal rather than a short memory. 12 of 28 lags leave the band in all: read the rest against that cycle rather than one at a time.
Lag
ACF
ACF band
PACF
PACF band
1
+0.06
±0.14 — inside
+0.06
±0.14 — inside
2
-0.40
±0.14 — outside
-0.41
±0.14 — outside
3
+0.06
±0.14 — inside
+0.14
±0.14 — outside
4
+0.03
±0.14 — inside
-0.20
±0.14 — outside
5
-0.42
±0.14 — outside
-0.40
±0.14 — outside
6
0.00
±0.14 — inside
+0.05
±0.14 — inside
7
+0.74
±0.14 — outside
+0.61
±0.14 — outside
8
0.00
±0.14 — inside
-0.23
±0.14 — outside
9
-0.39
±0.14 — outside
-0.04
±0.14 — inside
10
+0.08
±0.14 — inside
-0.03
±0.14 — inside
11
+0.08
±0.14 — inside
+0.09
±0.14 — inside
12
-0.39
±0.14 — outside
-0.08
±0.14 — inside
13
0.00
±0.14 — inside
+0.07
±0.14 — inside
14
+0.75
±0.14 — outside
+0.40
±0.14 — outside
15
+0.03
±0.14 — inside
-0.01
±0.14 — inside
16
-0.38
±0.14 — outside
-0.02
±0.14 — inside
17
+0.07
±0.14 — inside
-0.03
±0.14 — inside
18
+0.05
±0.14 — inside
-0.02
±0.14 — inside
19
-0.41
±0.14 — outside
0.00
±0.14 — inside
20
0.00
±0.14 — inside
+0.04
±0.14 — inside
21
+0.71
±0.14 — outside
+0.17
±0.14 — outside
22
+0.01
±0.14 — inside
-0.07
±0.14 — inside
23
-0.37
±0.14 — outside
+0.01
±0.14 — inside
24
+0.06
±0.14 — inside
-0.11
±0.14 — inside
25
+0.04
±0.14 — inside
-0.01
±0.14 — inside
26
-0.38
±0.14 — outside
+0.02
±0.14 — inside
27
-0.01
±0.14 — inside
-0.02
±0.14 — inside
28
+0.70
±0.14 — outside
+0.13
±0.14 — inside
band='none' · stems and a baseline, nothing else. Nothing is then called significant — no filled dots, no emphasised lag numbers, no verdict about shape — and the card states that instead of leaving every stem looking ordinary. It is the right mode when the correlations feed a model rather than a decision.
p95 checkout latency · autocorrelation
240 minutes · AR(1) with φ ≈ 0.7
p95 checkout latency · autocorrelation: 24 lags estimated from 240 readings. No band is drawn, so nothing here is marked significant.
ACF PACF
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No band is drawn, so nothing here is marked significant. Lag 0 is 1 by definition and is never plotted.
p95 checkout latency · autocorrelation: 24 lags estimated from 240 readings. No band is drawn, so nothing here is marked significant.